This week features fewer high-stakes central bank decisions. Instead, investor focus will shift toward US and UK macroeconomic data. High volatility is anticipated for USD and GBP pairs following the release of GDP and inflation figures. Aside from that, market players should pay close attention to numerous speeches by Fed, ECB, and BoE officials, as their rhetoric will provide clues about future regulatory moves in a shifting economic environment.
United States
6:30 p.m. GMT: Speech by Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Traditionally regarded as one of the Fed's most influential voices, Waller’s assessment of inflation expectations could set the tone for the US session.
8:15 p.m. GMT: Speech by FOMC Member Raphael Bostic. The Atlanta Fed President’s perspective on the resilience of the US economy will be vital for gauging the dollar's prospects.
United Kingdom
7:30 p.m. GMT: Speech by BoE Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Catherine Mann. Mann often adopts a hawkish stance, and her remarks could provide local support for the pound.
United States
1:30 p.m. GMT: Retail Sales (Month-over-Month) (December). (Forecast: 0.4%; Previous: 0.6%).
1:30 p.m. GMT: Core Retail Sales (Month-over-Month) (December). (Forecast: 0.4%; Previous: 0.5%). A slight slowdown in growth is expected. If the actual figures beat forecasts, the dollar may strengthen, as robust consumer demand continues to fuel inflation.
Germany
4:00 p.m. GMT: Speech by Deutsche Bundesbank representative Burkhard Balz. It is a key event for assessing the health of the Eurozone's largest economy
United States
1:30 p.m. GMT Data Release:
Average Hourly Earnings (Month-over-Month) (January). (Forecast: 0.3%; Previous: 0.3%).
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) (January). (Forecast: 70K; Previous: 50K).
Unemployment Rate (January). (Forecast: 4.4%; Previous: 4.4%).
The market is looking for a mild improvement in employment figures. Data exceeding 70K will strengthen the USD, while an unemployment rate above 4.4% would likely trigger a dollar sell-off and a rally in gold.
United Kingdom
7:00 a.m. GMT Data Release:
GDP (Year-over-Year) (Q4). (Previous: 1.3%).
GDP (Month-over-Month) (December). (Forecast: 0.1%; Previous: 0.3%).
GDP (Quarter-over-Quarter) (Q4). (Forecast: 0.2%; Previous: 0.1%).
This data will show whether the UK successfully avoided a technical recession at year-end. A quarterly growth print of 0.2% would support the pound.
United States
1:30 p.m. GMT: Initial Jobless Claims. (Forecast: 222K; Previous: 231K). An expected decline in claims would be positive for the dollar.
3:00 p.m. GMT: Existing Home Sales (January). (Forecast: 4.22M; Previous: 4.35M). This is an indicator of real estate sector health, with lower sales signaling an economic slowdown.
Canada
1:45 p.m. GMT: Speech by BoC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers. This serves as a potential driver for the USD/CAD pair.
Eurozone
6:30 p.m. GMT: Speech by ECB official Philip Lane.
Eurozone
10:00 a.m. GMT: GDP (Quarter-over-Quarter) (Q4). (Forecast: 0.3%; Previous: 0.3%). Confirmation of growth rates will bolster the euro.
United States
1:30 p.m. GMT Publications:
Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Month-over-Month) (January). (Forecast: 0.3%; Previous: 0.3%).
Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Year-over-Year) (January). (Forecast: 2.5%; Previous: 2.7%).
Core CPI (Month-over-Month) (January). (Forecast: 0.3%; Previous: 0.2%).
A decline in annual inflation to 2.5% would be positive for the stock market and negative for the dollar, as it brings the Fed closer to potential rate cuts. That being said, a Core CPI (Month-over-Month) reading above forecast could trigger the opposite reaction.
Wednesday caution: The mid-week release of employment data (NFP) could catch many by surprise. Expect a spike in volatility for EUR/USD and Gold at 1:30 p.m. GMT.
Focus on the pound: Thursday morning (7:00 a.m. GMT) is the key window for GBP/USD and pound-cross trades. GDP data will likely establish the trend for several days.
Inflationary finale: Friday’s CPI report is the main trigger of the week. If inflation proves "sticky,” with readings above the forecast, the dollar could wrap up the week with a sharp rally.
Monitor official rhetoric: Keep a close watch on speeches by Fed and ECB officials. In the absence of rate meetings, their statements are the primary source of insight into regulatory sentiment.
We wish you a successful trading week ahead and winning trades!
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