The new week will be dominated by central bank decisions and key US inflation data. Markets will focus on rate announcements from the Bank of England (BoE), the European Central Bank (ECB), and — most crucially for the yen — the Bank of Japan (BoJ). At the same time, traders will look for confirmation of cooling US inflation after the Fed’s recent soft tone, aiming to justify expectations for future rate cuts.
Canada:
● 1:30 p.m. GMT: Core CPI (Month-over-Month) (November). Previous: 0.6%. A stronger-than-expected increase in core inflation would reinforce hawkish expectations and support the CAD.
United States:
● 3:30 p.m. GMT: Speech by FOMC Member Williams. Markets will watch closely for any signals confirming or contradicting the Fed’s latest projections, potentially influencing short-term USD volatility.
United States:
1:30 p.m. GMT: Major US Data (November/October):
● Average Hourly Earnings (Month-over-Month) (November). Previous: 0.2%. A stronger increase would elevate inflation risks.
● Nonfarm Payrolls (November). Previous: 119K. Focus will be on confirmation of labor market weakening.
● Unemployment Rate (November). Forecast: 4.4%; Previous: 4.4%. A rise above 4.4% would be negative for the USD.
● Core Retail Sales (Month-over-Month) (October). Forecast: 0.3%; Previous: 0.3%. A key gauge of underlying consumer demand.
● Retail Sales (Month-over-Month) (October). Forecast: 0.2%; Previous: 0.2%. Weak retail data signals slowing economic momentum.
● 2:45 p.m. GMT: Services PMI (December). Forecast: 54.1.
● 2:45 p.m. GMT: Manufacturing PMI (December). Previous: 52.2. Lower-than-expected PMI data combined with weak labor indicators would intensify pressure on the USD and align with the Fed’s dovish stance.
United Kingdom:
● 7:00 a.m. GMT: CPI (Year-over-Year) (November). Previous: 3.6%. Persistent inflation supports the GBP, although markets still expect the BoE to cut rates on Thursday.
Еврозона:
● 10:00 a.m. GMT: CPI (Year-over-Year) and (Month-over-Month) (November). Forecasts: 2.2% YoY; Previous: 2.2% YoY / -0.3% MoM / 0.2% MoM. Eurozone inflation remains central to assessing future ECB decisions. An upside surprise would support the EUR.
United States:
● 3:30 p.m. GMT: Crude Oil Inventories. Previous: -1.812M. The weekly release influences energy prices and can indirectly affect CAD and inflation expectations.
United Kingdom:
● 12:00 p.m. GMT: BoE Interest Rate Decision (December). Forecast: 3.75%; Previous: 4.00%. A rate cut is expected! If the BoE holds rates steady instead, the GBP will likely receive a strong bullish boost.
Eurozone:
● 1:15 p.m. GMT: ECB Interest Rate Decision (December). Previous: 2.15%. Rates are expected to remain unchanged. Lagarde’s commentary will be crucial in shaping EUR sentiment going forward.
United States:
● 1:30 p.m. GMT: CPI (Month-over-Month) and (Year-over-Year) (November). Previous: 0.3% / 3.0%. The key inflation report of the week. A softer CPI print would justify more Fed easing and deepen USD weakness.
● 1:30 p.m. GMT: Initial Jobless Claims. Previous: 236K. A higher-than-expected reading would signal labor market softening, a negative factor for the USD.
Japan:
● 3:00 a.m. GMT: BoJ Interest Rate Decision. Forecast: 0.75%; Previous: 0.50%. A rate hike to the highest level in 30 years is expected! If delivered, this would likely trigger a sharp strengthening of the JPY amid increasing divergence from other central banks.
United States:
● 1:30 p.m. GMT: Core PCE (Year-over-Year) and (Month-over-Month) (October). Forecast: 2.8% / 0.2%. As the Fed’s leading inflation indicator, softer-than-expected data could trigger a final USD sell-off before the weekend.
Canada:
● 1:30 p.m. GMT: Core Retail Sales (Month-over-Month) (October). Previous: 0.2%. Weak retail figures would confirm slowing consumer demand, which, in turn, may weaken the CAD.
● Inflation focus (Thursday / Friday): US CPI (Thursday) and, in particular, the Core PCE report (Friday) are critical. A sharper-than-expected slowdown in inflation would reinforce the Fed’s dovish stance and could accelerate the USD’s decline.
● US Labor Market (Tuesday): Employment data, namely Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate, will act as a key stress test for the US economy. Signs of labor market weakness remain the main justification for potential Fed rate cuts.
● Risk management: With a dense cluster of central bank decisions and high-impact inflation data, elevated volatility is likely, especially in the second half of the week. Maintain strict risk control, and always use stop-loss orders.
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