Despite mixed and even negative economic data this week, the market showed an illogical dynamic. The Eurozone's inflation exceeded forecasts, yet the euro weakened. Australia's GDP rose, but the Australian dollar remained under pressure due to tariff wars. US employment data came in worse than expected, but this didn't change the overall market sentiment. As a result, volatility was high but often didn't align with the logic of fundamental news. Key US labor market data is expected on Friday, which could set the tone for the dollar for the near future.
Eurozone:
● Unemployment Rate (July). Actual figure: 6.2% / Forecast: 6.2% / Prev: 6.3%. The figure matched expectations, so it didn’t have a significant impact on the euro.
Eurozone:
● Consumer Price Index (Year-over-Year) (August). Actual figure: 2.3% / Forecast: 2.0% / Prev: 2.0%. Despite stronger-than-expected inflation, the EUR/USD fell almost 100 points. The move was driven by USD strength, even though there were no new fundamental drivers.
United States:
● Manufacturing PMI (August). Actual figure: 48.7 / Forecast: 49.0 / Prev: 48.0. A softer result signaled potential weakness for the dollar, but had no impact on the market.
Australia:
●GDP (Quarter-over-Quarter) (Q2). Actual figure: 0.6% / Forecast: 0.5% / Prev: 0.2%. Growth was fueled by a 0.9% increase in household consumption. The data helped ease fears of a deeper AUD/USD decline, though US-China trade tensions continued to weigh on the Aussie.
Eurozone:
● S&P Global Composite PMI (August). Actual figure: 51.0 / Forecast: 51.1 / Prev: 51.1.
● Services PMI (August). Actual figure: 50.5 / Forecast: 50.7 / Prev: 50.7.
United Kingdom:
●Composite PMI (August). Actual figure: 53.5 / Forecast: 53.0 / Prev: 53.0.
●Services PMI (August). Actual figure: 54.2 / Forecast: 53.6 / Prev: 53.6. The upbeat UK data supported the GBP/USD midweek, but gains were short-lived, and the pair pulled back on Thursday.
United States:
●JOLTS Job Openings (July). Actual figure: 7.181M / Forecast: 7.240M / Prev: 7.437M. A stronger reading would have been bullish for the dollar.
● Fed Beige Book. The report provided an overview of the US economy and shaped expectations for future Fed policy. This time, he brought nothing new to the markets.
United States:
● ADP Nonfarm Payrolls (August). Actual figure: 54K / Forecast: 71K / Prev: 104K.
● Initial Jobless Claims. Actual figure: 237K / Forecast: 229K / Prev: 229K.
● Services PMI (August). Actual figure: 54.5 / Forecast: 55.4 / Prev: 55.4.
● ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (August). Actual figure: 52.0 / Forecast: 50.5 / Prev: 50.1.
United States:
● Average Hourly Earnings (Month-over-Month) (August). Actual figure: 0,3% / Forecast: 0.3% / Prev: 0.3%.
● Non-Farm Payrolls (August). Actual figure: 38K / Forecast: 74K / Prev: 73K. A stronger-than-expected reading would boost the dollar. The much weaker-than-expected figures sent a negative signal for the dollar, causing the USD to immediately weaken against major currencies after the news release.
● Unemployment Rate (August). Actual figure: 4.3% / Forecast: 4.3% / Prev: 4.2%.
Canada:
● 2:00 p.m. GMT: Ivey PMI (August). Forecast: 53.1 / Prev: 55.8. An upside surprise would provide support for the CAD.
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